Wchicken Joe Biden attended his very first G7 top as head of state in 2021, his message to U.S. allies was “America’s back.” Their reaction, the head of state remembered to attend a current meeting, was: “For how long?”

Three years later on, that inquiry goes to the top of European minds as they support for the opportunity—and, if current surveys are to be thought, possibility—that Donald Trump might slip by Biden in the race for the White House in November. While the rematch in between the existing and previous head of states has actually long been anticipated, both’s very first governmental discussion of this race—in which Biden showed up amazingly sickly (the 81-year-old head of state was apparently dealing with a chilly) contrasted to Trump’s regular blowing and bluster—placed the truth of the competition right into much sharper emphasis throughout the Atlantic. Panic rapidly occurred.

“American democracy killed before our eyes by gerontocracy,” Guy Verhofstadt, the previous Belgian head of state that currently offers in the European Parliament, created of the discussion in an X article. German legislator Norbert Röttgen alerted that “Germany must prepare at full speed for an uncertain future,” including that “if we don’t take responsibility for European security now, no one will.” Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski showed up to recommend in a puzzling article that Biden ought to think about taking out from the race, keeping in mind that “it’s important to manage one’s ride into the sunset.” Former Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi was much less refined: “Joe Biden can’t do it.”

Europe made it through Trump’s very first term, obviously. But the continent would certainly locate itself in a a lot more treacherous placement in a 2nd term, specifically provided Russia’s recurring intrusion of Ukraine, which remains in its 3rd year without any end visible. While lots of European leaders and policymakers are no question considering what such a circumstance would certainly indicate for the continent, couple of agree to mention it openly. “[The U.S.] is a country I know very, very well indeed, and because I know it very well indeed, I’m going to leave the debates that occur in their politics to them,” David Lammy, Britain’s newly-appointed principal mediator, informed TIME throughout a current interview in London. He did reveal that at the very least some prep work is underway, keeping in mind that he is preserving relate to American legislators throughout the political range, amongst them Trump acolytes and advisors such as Sen. Lindsey Graham and previous nationwide safety advisor Robert O’Brien. 

In personal, nonetheless, various other European legislators are extra honest concerning the obstacles that a prospective Trump re-election would certainly posture. “It’s nearly impossible to prepare for that because the main issue is [Trump’s] unpredictability,” a elderly German authorities, that asked for privacy in order to talk easily, informed TIME in June. Indeed, lots of Europeans keep in mind Trump’s very first term as being unpredictable and separated, specified by profession battles, isolationism, and deep uncertainty in the direction of the E.U. and NATO. In a 2nd term, Trump has actually assured even more of the very same, informing TIME in a current meeting that he would certainly take Europe to job on profession (“They don’t want our agriculture. They don’t want our cars. They don’t want anything from us. It’s like a one-way street”) and protection costs (“They’ve taken advantage of us, both on NATO and Ukraine”).

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It’s Trump’s relatively uncertain dedication to NATO, which holds its 75th wedding anniversary top in Washington, D.C. today, that has transatlantic onlookers most worried. “That is Europe’s key vulnerability vis a vis the U.S.,” states Majda Ruge, a Berlin-based elderly plan other at the European Council on Foreign Relations. While the previous head of state might not have the ability to act upon his previous dangers to draw the U.S. out of NATO, because of this a action currently needs the authorization of Congress, he might require that European nations substantially boost their protection costs or perhaps recommend, as he has actually formerly done, that those that don’t be delegated to having less defenses. Another proposition, drifted by one Trump-lined up brain trust, would certainly be for the U.S. to preserve its nuclear umbrella over Europe, yet or else scale down America’s safety duty on the continent.

Although European nations have actually been attended tip up their protection costs over the last few years, amongst them Poland (which because Russia’s full-blown intrusion of Ukraine has actually increased its protection costs to 3.9% of GDP) and Germany (where Chancellor Olaf Scholz vowed to overhaul Germany’s protection plan in reaction to Russia’s intrusion), and regardless of phone calls for better tactical freedom by the similarity French President Emmanuel Macron and others, Europe stays greatly dependent on American safety assurances. “There is a growing awareness that America’s commitment to Europe is going to be much more volatile and much less straightforward if Trump is re-elected,” states Leslie Vinjamuri, the supervisor of the U.S. and Americas program at the Chatham House brain trust in London. “It’s really obvious with Trump that any prospect of getting more out of America is going to depend on Europe doing more.”

Europeans are afraid that volatility might additionally reach U.S. assistance for Ukraine, which has actually currently been prevented by pricey hold-ups as a outcome of Republican resistance in Congress. While Trump has actually recommended that finishing the battle in Ukraine would certainly be amongst his very first jobs if he were reelected, he most importantly hasn’t revealed how. In the lack of such information, Europeans have actually emphasized the significance of making assistance for Ukraine “Trump-proof,” in case the previous head of state must choose to considerably minimize or finish U.S. army help to Kyiv. While outward bound NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has actually drifted the concept of a multiyear help bundle to guard Ukraine “against the winds of political change,” lots of stay defeatist concerning the possibility of a complete Ukrainian triumph anytime quickly. 

“Obviously, the ultimate goal is a full restoration of the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, including Crimea,” Czech President Petr Pavel informed TIME in a current meeting. “But we all understand that it’s not an easy task. It will not happen in the foreseeable future.”

Read More: A Sobering Message On Ukraine From a NATO Head of State

A much less kindly and extra transactional brand name of diplomacy won’t be restricted to NATO. Whether it’s managing issues as relatively inconsonant as profession plan to the battle versus environment adjustment to connections with China, Vinjamuri cautions that Eurpeans must anticipate Trump to connect several plan concerns with each other. “Clearly Donald Trump is going to turn to the tariff wars again,” Vinjamuri states, referencing the Trump management’s 2018 choice to put tolls on steel and light weight aluminum from the E.U.; the previous head of state has actually suggested enforcing a 10% toll on all imports if he’s provided a 2nd term. “He is going to take on Europe on all manners of questions of trade, of Europe’s cooperation with China.”

“We’d like to think that you can separate out different issue areas,” she includes, “but if there’s a Trump reelection, there will be huge spillover.” In impact, a Trump management might endanger to take out U.S. soldiers from Europe to compel a plan change on profession or endanger to transform its plan vis a vis Moscow if European nations don’t move their strategy in the direction of Beijing.

The quicker Europe has the ability to create a usual placement on these concerns, Ruge cautions, the more powerful the front it might offer versus a favorable Trump management. But the continent stays deeply separated, not the very least over its ongoing assistance for Ukraine, environment, and migration. Those departments stand to be intensified by the surge of much best events, a few of which currently locate themselves in federal government in fifty percent a loads of the E.U.’s 27 nations. Spoilers such as Hungary’s Viktor Orbán would certainly be specifically pushed by a Trump return.

Ultimately, whatever prep work Europe thinks it ought to carry out in advancement of November, it might currently be far too late. “Now Europeans are really taking this very seriously, but I think the timing is unfortunately suboptimal,” states Ruge, that co-authored a current plan quick describing 6 diplomacy circumstances that might deal with Europe in a 2nd Trump term. 

In the quick, she and her co-authors kept in mind that while European leaders and policymakers are no question familiar with the obstacles they will certainly deal with in a 2nd Trump term, “precious few policy measures” have actually been taken—a harshness that originates from departments within Europe over the threat a Trump management would certainly posture (some European federal governments, specifically in Hungary and Slovakia, invite the possibility) and the level to which they can weather a 2nd term as they did the very first.

 “The critical question is not just how these countries should prepare, but when they should have started preparing,” Ruge states, “and that is definitely not now. The process should’ve started two years ago.”