Ray Dalio: The Democrats’ Problem


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As you recognize, my assessment of background has actually led me to think that there are 5 significant related pressures forming occasions on the planet. Studying them has actually offered me a design template that I can adhere to that aids me recognize what’s taking place and what’s most likely to occur within what I call The Big Cycle. Then I see the daily growths because of this cycle. Today’s monitorings have to do with the interior order cycle in the U.S., extra particularly, concentrating on the Democratic Party and President Biden taking care of the concern of whether he need to stay the event’s candidate for head of state.

The loss of count on the Democratic event and following actions

To start, I wish to explain that I value, like, and feel sorry for President Biden and I obtain that Democrats locate themselves in a tough placement. At the very same time, it is rational for me and others to state that the management of the Democratic Party has actually endured a horrible loss of self-confidence in its sincerity and judgment since it a) concealed President Biden’s weak and swiftly decreasing problem and afterwards, when that problem emerged, b) informed the American individuals that we shouldn’t stress over it which it will certainly be best for President Biden to compete and be chosen head of state. Now that this strategy has actually gone awry, they are battling with what to do. There are 3 feasible strategies that I see them battling to pick from which I call “the bait and switch plan,” “the mini-primary plan,” and the “the coronation plan.”

Read More: The Coming Great Conflict

“The Bait and Switch Plan”

The strategy prior to the general public’s exploration of President Biden’s problem, which is still the strategy that they are currently openly sticking to, is to insist that President Biden will certainly be great. However, the general public’s exploration of his problem has actually led them to customize the image a little bit. For instance, they currently state that he is great in between 10am and 4pm, however they have not resolved the chance that he will certainly become worse with time. That is clearly outrageous and a disrespect to individuals’s knowledge, so it leaves individuals a) with a loss of count on the Democrats’ straightforwardness and judgment and b) without a clear photo of exactly how management will certainly function and what the Democratic Party means. This is very important because of the split in between those of the modest left and those of the severe left.

“The Mini-Primary Plan” and “the Coronation Plan”

If the Democrats choose to attempt and switch over candidates prior to the political election, they can choose a substitute by either:

 a) having arguments in between the fragmented team of competitors (this will certainly occur after President Biden actions apart and the department in between those of the modest left and those of the tough left will certainly appear), which is what I call the mini-primary strategy which would most likely be dangerous for their possibilities of winning in the basic political elections however would certainly enable the American individuals to see and pick the leader and course they want to get on, or

 b) having President Biden pass the election to Kamala Harris, which I call the crowning strategy, since he and others, however not individuals, present the crown on her, which would certainly be much less unpleasant however would certainly leave individuals without the chance to listen to the arguments and via that see what the various courses onward would certainly resemble and afterwards make their very own options of the candidate.

Next Steps: What should they do?

I consider this situation like the myth of the emperor that has no garments and I think of what occurred when everybody saw that he had no garments and the lessons the myth supplies — that it’s ideal to identify the reality and carry on in the very best feasible method. I think that leading Democrats need to begin by, a minimum of, identifying and talking the reality, whatever that is — as an example 1) that they made a horrible blunder to allow this scenario reach where it has actually managed concealing it and 2) that they think running Biden and Harris provides their best effort of obtaining chosen which they will certainly handle his problem after they win a 2nd term since the options look even worse to them. That’s the actual believing behind the “bait and switch plan,” which to me is a terrible plan, any way you cut it.

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I think that, regardless of which plan they choose, they must acknowledge the problem–that Biden might not be able to serve out his term–and explain how they will deal with that in a detailed way, most importantly by making clear who will lead (e.g. Harris) and fleshing out what Democrats will stand for by having a very detailed platform and signaling who or which type of people she will choose as advisors, cabinet officials, etc.

I personally think the best way to get there is via the Mini-Primary Plan so that voters can see debates and the candidates’ positions and, with those stress-tested, can vote for whom they want.  Regardless of what path the leadership of the Democratic Party goes down, it should be honest and follow through with doing what they say because without trust in their truth, they will lack what people need most to get behind them.  

I get that this is difficult and messy especially if President Biden refuses to go down this path, but running government is even more difficult and messy so I view this as a good test of how well they can handle tough situations.  To me, not being afraid to and being capable of doing what is required to lead and have people follow is a requirement for leading the country.

Who will step forward and deal with this in a straightforward way?  

I am still hoping for honest, smart, strong, and ideally moderate-bipartisan Democrats (or Republicans) to step forward and make the path forward clear. I know that they still exist. Mark Warner is a possibility so I will be interested to see how he handles this situation. I would expect that if one steps forward, more will follow. In any case, stepping forward in that way is the tough and right thing to do so I hope some leader will do that. If we see that doesn’t happen, then we will see that the Democratic Party failed this important test.

As things now stand, there is no good presidential contender and no good party for me to choose from.

At this time, there is no good choice for me for the country’s leadership because there is no one who is likely to give me what I value most. What I value most is civility over disorder, a strong bipartisan middle over uncompromising extremism, respect for law and order, respect for different approaches to life including not getting involved in other countries’ internal affairs, peace over war, strength over weakness, and thoughtful disagreement and radical truthfulness. I respect all different cultures and religions and prefer the freedom of people to choose the ones that suit them best. Basically, I prefer almost any way one chooses to live one’s life as long as it doesn’t hurt other people, and I would fight for these values because my study of history has taught me that they make the world a much healthier and happier place than the alternatives. I also believe that strong education that includes teaching strong character is essential and terribly neglected. Because all these things are weakening in the U.S., I worry about the U.S. weakening despite the remarkable inventiveness of a small group of people whose ideas are fueled by vibrant capitalism.

At the same time, as I see creative capitalist vibrancy producing great advances, I worry that capitalism doesn’t put striving to provide equal opportunity as high as it should relative to striving to be personally rich and successful. As I think you know, I believe that not providing much more equal opportunity starting with early childhood education is both unfair and unsustainable because it will lead to a weaker population, great social costs, and great conflict. So, I believe that what’s needed is strong bipartisan leadership to make big reforms for the reasons that I explained, in some depth, five years ago when I wrote Why and How Capitalism Needs to be Reformed.

It is an unfortunate reality for me and about half of all Americans (46% from a recent poll) that we find ourselves wishing for a better alternative than supporting either of the existing candidates. While I personally would love to see a strong third party from the middle that can work well in a bipartisan way, that is not an option and is a topic for another time. For now, the choices I am seeing from both sides are more opposite than aligned with what I am looking for. I feel like I am faced with the choice between a strong, unethical, almost fascist Republican Party and a frail, untruthful, and enigmatic Democratic Party that is failing to make clear what they will do when their sitting president can no longer serve. I, and most others, know what the Republican Party stands for (the hard right) and who will lead it because Republicans are aligned and clearer about these things, but I don’t know what the Democratic Party will stand for or what team of people will lead it over the nearly next five years.

For these factors, it shows up to me the governmental race is currently basically a race in between the evil one we understand, that is from the tough right, and some evil one we do not recognize that is from the left, though it’s unclear exactly how much left.


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